First Mover: Bitwise Calls $50K Bitcoin Price When Market Calm Finally Breaks - CoinDesk - CoinDesk

First Mover: Bitwise Calls $50K Bitcoin Price When Market Calm Finally Breaks - CoinDesk - CoinDesk


First Mover: Bitwise Calls $50K Bitcoin Price When Market Calm Finally Breaks - CoinDesk - CoinDesk

Posted: 30 Jun 2020 05:26 AM PDT

Bitcoin has traded in an ever-tightening range for two months, and digital-market analysts say a new wave of coronavirus cases and emergency measures could provoke the largest cryptocurrency by market cap out of the doldrums.

The backdrop is an anemic economy, with the International Monetary Fund projecting last week that global output will shrink 4.9% this year: worse than its April forecast for 3% contraction. Confirmed deaths from the coronavirus passed half a million on Sunday, and authorities from China to the U.S. states of Florida and Texas enacted new restrictions to curb rising caseloads. The World Health Organization has also warned the worst is yet to come. 

You're reading First Mover, CoinDesk's daily markets newsletter. Assembled by the CoinDesk Markets Team, First Mover starts your day with the most up-to-date sentiment around crypto markets, which of course never close, putting in context every wild swing in bitcoin and more. We follow the money so you don't have to. You can subscribe here.

Volatility is rising in the U.S. stock market, with the Standard & Poor's 500 Index still just 10% off the record high reached in February. Yet, bitcoin has been stuck between $8,500 and $10,200 since late April, a remarkably placid stretch given the ongoing tribulations. 

For bitcoin traders, it might not be the best time to sneak away for vacation. 

"With more uncertainty in the stock market again and a monthly close coming up, we may face increased volatility going into July," analysts with the cryptocurrency-analysis firm Arcane Research wrote Friday in a report.   

Bitcoin's stretch of calm is evident in price charts focused on a statistical pattern known as Bollinger Bands, which narrow when volatility shrinks. The bandwidth as of Monday had narrowed to 0.09, close to its lowest level in 2020.

fm-june-30-chart-1-btc-price-bollinger
Bitcoin price chart showing Bollinger Bandwidth
Source: TradingView

CoinDesk Research Director Noelle Acheson noted on Sunday that bitcoin's shrinking volatility contrasts with the persistent level of price swings in the S&P 500. 

Stock traders are struggling to reconcile U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin's predictions of a "spectacular rebound" later this year with Federal Reserve officials' warnings that the timing and strength of the recovery are uncertain. 

fm-june-30-chart-2-volatilities
Chart showing bitcoin's declining volatility, compared with the Standard & Poor's 500 Index of U.S. stocks
Source: CoinDesk Research

Big cryptocurrency investors including Pantera Capital and Bitwise Asset Management say bitcoin prices could benefit from the next wave of government and central bank stimulus packages, which might be needed to prevent deeper economic fallout.

Due to its capped supply of 21 million, bitcoin is often touted as a hedge against inflation, similar to gold.   

U.S. President Donald Trump, who is fading in the polls as the November elections approach, has reportedly told aides that he favors sending Americans another round of stimulus checks.

And the Federal Reserve saidMonday it would start buying bonds directly from the companies that issue them, effectively becoming the lender of last resort to big corporations; historically, such emergency lending was restricted to financial institutions.

"The Fed is buying everything that isn't nailed down," the cryptocurrency investment firm Arca wrote Monday in a weekly newsletter. "Naturally, even the most bullish investors remain somewhat cautious with regard to when all of this unwinds."

Based on one popular investment model, known as the "stock-to-flow ratio," bitcoin could rise to $115,000 by August 2021, according to Pantera. On Monday, the cryptocurrency changed hands at $9,151. 

The "tsunami of money will have a large impact," Pantera wrote last week in a monthly newsletter. "If there are trillions more paper dollars, the law of supply and demand implies much more paper money to buy the same amount of cryptocurrency." 

Matthew Hougan, global head of research at Bitwise, wrote in a monthly investor letter on June 15 that bitcoin could reach $50,000 if its market capitalization reached just 10% of gold's roughly $9 trillion.

"It's a matter of when, not if," Hougan told First Mover in a follow-up email. 

Analysts with the digital-asset research firm Delphi Digital wrote Friday that "we're rapidly approaching a key inflection point as policymakers debate if and when to deploy their next wave of relief measures."

"One could argue the broader macro backdrop has never been more favorable for bitcoin," according to Delphi. 

Anything to break up the monotony. 

Tweet of the day

Bitcoin watch

BTC: Price: $9,156 (BPI) | 24-Hr High: $9,224 | 24-Hr Low: $9,032

download-4-34

Trend: Bitcoin's price bounce from the weekend low of $8,830 could well be short-lived, price-volume analysis indicates.

The leading cryptocurrency by market value is currently trading near $9,150, representing a 3% decline on a month-to-date basis. Prices clocked a high of $9,233 early Tuesday. 

The recovery from sub-$9,000 saved the day for the bulls. After all, acceptance under that level would have marked a downside break of the multi-week long trading range of $9,000 to $10,000 and could have fuelled steeper price declines. 

However, the relief could be temporary as the uptick from $8,830 to $9,233 is accompanied by a drop in trading volumes, as seen on the hourly chart. A low-volume bounce is often short-lived. 

Also, the price rise seen over the past two days has taken the shape of a bear flag, a bearish continuation pattern. A break below the lower end of the flag, currently at $9,100, if confirmed, would create room for a sell-off to $8,150 (target as per the measured move method). 

The bearish pattern would be invalidated if prices rise above the hourly chart resistance at $9,344. That would shift the focus to the highs of $9,800 seen last week. 

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Bitcoin’s Boring Price Could Be End Of Quarter Lull - Forbes

Posted: 30 Jun 2020 07:19 AM PDT

Known for its large price swings, bitcoin (BTC) has seen relatively quiet price action the over the last several weeks. The asset's tides could change heading into 2020's third financial quarter, however.

"Bitcoin has had a strong Q2 once again, +41% as of the 29th of June, and has recently been trading in a tight range between $9,000 and $10,000," Emmanuel Goh, cofounder and CEO of cryptocurrency data analytics company Skew, told me on June 29 via email.

The third quarter "is usually more challenging from a performance perspective if you remove the exceptional 2017 vintage," Goh added, pointing toward historical data aside from crypto's massive 2017 bull run year.

[Ed note: Investing in cryptocoins or tokens is highly speculative and the market is largely unregulated. Anyone considering it should be prepared to lose their entire investment.]

Bitcoin started 2020 off close to the $7,000 mark, according to TradingView.com price data. By mid-February, the asset found itself up near $10,500 per BTC before taking a massive tumble the following month. In the midst of Covid-19 prevention measures, fear and uncertainty, crypto's largest asset fell below $4,000 by March 13 while the U.S. stock market saw similar downward price action during that same month.

Since March, however, bitcoin yielded a stupendous comeback, popping over $10,000 once again by early May, coming just shy of $10,500 by the start of June.

Although crypto's pioneer asset showed strong recovery, May and June have largely seen bitcoin trading sideways, primarily between $8,500 and $10,000, accompanied by a number of sizable price swings, as well as several slow price days.

"Bitcoin had a record options expiry on the 26th of June with 115,000 bitcoin equivalent options expiring," Goh said. Bitcoin options trading products come with expirations, giving traders a window in which to act before expiration, followed by the beginning of a new time period. On June 26, multiple bitcoin options trading products expired across the market, including products from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange CME and crypto exchange Deribit.

"In equity markets, it is not unusual to see markets trading in a tight range into large quarterly expiries and picking up a direction thereafter," Goh said. "We will watch at the start of July if we are seeing the same pattern emerging in cryptocurrency markets."

As a borderless digital asset asset built on blockchain technology and run by the people, theoretically away from governmental control, bitcoin's price has not always travelled in line with mainstream markets, or in a similar fashion as those markets.

In December 2017, the CME brought cash-settled bitcoin futures trading into the mainstream financial world, allowing traditional investors and traders exposure to the coin's price swings. The CME also launched bitcoin options trading in early 2020, after the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) opened mainstream bitcoin trading products weeks and months prior.

Multiple other outlets, including various crypto exchanges, offer similar bitcoin trading products.

Such traditional-type financial products might be in the process of leading bitcoin into similar tendencies as mainstream financial markets. In the past, the asset's price has correlated with other markets at times, while blazing its own trail on separate occasions.

As 2020 heads into its third quarter, historical data shows mostly overall losses for the period each year since 2014, according to data provided by Goh. Out of all six periods, only two touted bitcoin exiting the quarter on a positive note. One of those years was 2017, mentioned as an exception by Goh, which hosted an 80.89% gain. The other — 2018, which showed a small gain of 2.92%. The other four years showed red third quarter numbers, including 2019, in which the asset exited the quarter down 21.50%.

Disclaimer: I actively trade cryptocurrencies, as well as hold a small amount of BTC, ETH, LTC, XMR, NEO, ZEC, BEAM, BCH, DASH, LINK, XTZ and various insignificant other altcoin positions.

Max Keiser: US Hash Rate War With Iran Can Send Bitcoin Price to $500K - Cointelegraph

Posted: 30 Jun 2020 06:40 AM PDT

Bitcoin (BTC) will hit $500,000 because the United States will start a giant hash war with Iran and Venezuela — and it's already started.

In the latest episode of his "Keiser Report" TV show, Max Keiser predicted that the Iranian and Venezuelan regimes would force the Trump administration to embrace BTC.

Keiser: God is looking at us through the Bitcoin protocol

Thanks to Tehran potentially controlling 3% of the Bitcoin hash rate already and Venezuela — briefly — accepting BTC payments, the U.S. joining the fight for Bitcoin supremacy is only a matter of time.

"Iran has already got 3% of global hash rate, so now I think Venezuela will get 3%–5% pretty quickly," Keiser said.

"And then at some point America will say, 'We've got to enter the 21st century space race of mining Bitcoin,' and then they'll try to seek 20% of the hash rate, and then security goes up dramatically, and the price goes to $400,000, $500,000."

For Keiser, repeating previous arguments, Bitcoin represents the "reformation of free speech" which governments deny citizens by controlling the currency, and therefore the entirety of their position within the state.

"Bitcoin is the Mona Lisa of the 21st century: It's self-aware, it is observing us through the quantum mechanical aspects of technology, and it's channeling the eyes of God," he continued.

"So, this is God looking at us through the protocol and trying to figure out, 'How do we fix this human species because they've gone way off track due to central banking?'"

"Uncensorable, unconfiscatable, indestructible wealth"

The current situation on macro markets versus the suffering of many Americans, exemplified in the Black Lives Matter protests, speaks to Keiser's point.

Anger with the government, and the dilution of the U.S. dollar, contrasts with stock markets seeing their best quarter since 2011. At the same time, the Federal Reserve has taken ownership of huge chunks of the equity markets, equal to 30% of U.S. gross domestic product.

Last week, Keiser appealed to protesters to abandon their mode of retaliation and simply buy Bitcoin instead.

He summarized:

"The truth is if you want individual sovereignty, if you want justice, if you want uncensorable, unconfiscatable, indestructible wealth, there's only one way to go — and that's Bitcoin."

Bitcoin Price Dump: Miners Start Selling 9,000 BTC, Possibly Opening Bear Cycle | Markets and Prices - Bitcoin News

Posted: 25 Jun 2020 02:33 AM PDT

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