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Bitcoin Suddenly Primed For A Surprise $400 Million Shock - Forbes

Posted: 08 Dec 2020 01:04 AM PST

Bitcoin has been hovering just under its all-time highs for a few weeks now, leaving investors guessing if or when it will break the psychological $20,000 per bitcoin barrier.

The bitcoin price has soared this year partly due to companies including business-intelligence firm MicroStrategy MSTR and payments giant Square SQ adding bitcoin to their corporate treasuries.

Now, the Nasdaq NDAQ -listed MicroStrategy has said it's going to almost double its bitcoin investment, announcing plans to sell up to $400 million of convertible bonds to buy more bitcoin.

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The bitcoin and cryptocurrency community was set alight by MicroStrategy's shock $425 million bitcoin purchase this summer with the company's chief executive Michael Saylor embarking on a blistering bitcoin-touting tour.

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"I want something that I could put $425 million into for 100 years," Saylor told bitcoin and cryptocurrency media outlet Coindesk in September.

MicroStrategy's bitcoin investment has so far proven to be highly lucrative, with the total value of its bitcoin holdings now worth almost $800 million. The company's stock has tripled since the summer.

As well as doubling-down on its bitcoin-allocation, MicroStrategy is also looking at ways it might offer bitcoin data products and services.

Just last week, MicroStrategy revealed it bought a further $50 million worth of bitcoin, taking its hoard to approximately 41,000 bitcoins, Saylor said via Twitter.

MicroStrategy's planned $400 million bitcoin investment would increase its holdings by almost 21,000 bitcoin tokens at current prices.

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Bitcoin traders and investors see MicroStrategy's continued support as bullish for the bitcoin price with many searching for direction after bitcoin's near-three month bull run stalled at just under $20,000.

"The news around MicroStrategy's purchase of bitcoins at the price close to $19,500 may become an important factor of bitcoin support this week," Alex Kuptsikevich, FxPro senior financial analyst, said via email.

"The company bought $50 million worth of coins, while in total they own almost 41,000 bitcoin. Although compared to the traditional market, this is a relatively small investment, nevertheless, such an injection may be a very tangible positive impulse for the crypto market."

Will the Bitcoin Price Rally Last This Time? - Investopedia

Posted: 07 Dec 2020 10:11 AM PST

The recent rally in Bitcoin price (BTCUSD) has left investors with an important question: Will the rally last?

The quicksilver nature of cryptocurrency markets makes it difficult to answer that question with clarity. Bitcoin's 2017 rally transmuted into a prolonged slump less than a year later. While analysts and commentators have stepped up with optimistic predictions, it is far from certain whether Bitcoin price will continue to increase.

Key Takeaways

  • Bitcoin analysts and proponents have predicted price targets of $50,000 for the cryptocurrency next year.
  • Some commentators also say that the pandemic might have proved to be a turning point for Bitcoin's acceptance as a "quasi-digital gold" for investors.

A Trillion Dollar Target?

The risky underpinnings of cryptocurrency markets will appeal to traders and investors in 2021, according to analysts from Bloomberg. "A risk-off decline like the 1Q could return Bitcoin towards the $10,000 support level in 2021, but we believe the path of least resistance remains higher," the analysts wrote. In simple words, investors will continue to embrace the risk and price volatility inherent in Bitcoin investing in 2021.

Bloomberg analysts have predicted a price target of $50,000 for Bitcoin, implying a $1 trillion market cap for the cryptocurrency. They cite increased demand for the cryptocurrency, mainstream adoption and interest, and diminished supply as Bitcoin reaches its 21 million supply target as reasons for their estimated price.

BTIG analyst Julian Emanuel has estimated a similar figure for the cryptocurrency's price next year. But his reasoning is different. Emanuel compared Bitcoin's price to the Nasdaq 100 (NDX), a market cap-weighted index consisting of 103 non-financial companies at Nasdaq. The index reached a peak valuation during the dotcom bubble and crashed soon after before beginning another gradual ascent.

"It took NDX 14 years to rise above its parabolic 'blowoff top,' then six years to rise a further 150%. Bitcoin appears poised to exceed the 2017 parabolic 'blowoff top' in a mere three years. Should Bitcoin's speed of ascent keep pace with the past three years and the degree of the rally approximate that of NDX, $50,000 per Bitcoin is a reasonable year-end 2021 price target," Emanuel wrote.

A New Future or a False Rally Redux?

Momentum can be a powerful price propellant. The actions of a single investor can induce others, who don't know much or any better, to follow them into a trade.

The price target predictions for Bitcoin bring back memories of 2017, when equally ambitious (and in some cases outlandish) predictions were made for Bitcoin's future. Back then, the cryptocurrency's astronomical prices fell as quickly as they had risen, leaving a trail of disappointed investors and shuttered investment firms.

But the conditions were different. Asian investors and retail traders were reported to have driven Bitcoin's previous price increase. They quickly moved in and out of trades, booked profits, and abandoned crypto markets not soon afterward. This move sucked out much-needed liquidity from crypto markets and crashed asset prices.

According to crypto-forensics firm Chainalysis, American investors driving the rally the rally this time around. Institutional firms and hedge funds, interested in parking their funds for the long term, are also beginning to pour funds into the asset class. In the long term, such liquidity should help propel future price increases because it strengthens the market and tamps down the intense volatility that has characterized crypto markets.

If history is any indication, the COVID-19 pandemic may have also proven to be a turning point for cryptocurrency markets. Prominent economic historian Niall Ferguson told online publication Barron's that pandemics are accelerators of financial history.

"We've seen that in just the same way that the use of coins as money was accelerated by the Black Death. Payments in kind were yielding to a cash economy in Europe, and this was accelerated in the 1340s," Ferguson said, adding that the COVID-19 pandemic has hastened the acceptance of Bitcoin as a "quasi-digital gold" among investors.

Caution Is Key

The glib utterances of analysts and Bitcoin proponents are not without their flaws, however. For example, Bloomberg analysts say that one of the reasons for Bitcoin's attraction lies in its lack of correlation to mainstream markets. But the recent whipsaw of crypto market movement has occurred in tandem with those of mainstream markets, which reached a record high the same time as Bitcoin surpassed its 2017 peak.

It is important to remember that trading volumes and liquidity for cryptocurrency markets are a fraction of those for mainstream markets. There are fewer players, less transparency, and minimal regulation. And so, all price targets and analysis fall within the realm of conjectures and can change with a single large trade.

Is Bitcoin Building Support Above $18,000? - Forbes

Posted: 08 Dec 2020 10:20 AM PST

Bitcoin prices have been trading north of $18,000 since late last month, fluctuating above this level as the cryptocurrency benefits from multiple bullish factors.

The digital currency has stayed above $18,000 since November 30, according to CoinDesk data.

Several analysts commented on these price movements, offering perspective on whether the cryptocurrency is establishing support above this price level.

[Ed note: Investing in cryptocoins or tokens is highly speculative and the market is largely unregulated. Anyone considering it should be prepared to lose their entire investment.]

Analysts Weigh In

"Bitcoin is currently consolidating between $18,000 and $19,000," said Joe DiPasquale, CEO of cryptocurrency hedge fund manager BitBull Capital.

"We are also witnessing an ascending triangle pattern on the chart, and a breakout above $20,000 this month is a possibility," he added.

"On the downside, there is decent support in the zone between $18,500 and $18,000," noted DiPasquale.

Mark Warner, head of trading for London-based financial services firm BCB Group, also gave his two cents.

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"From a technical perspective Bitcoin is forming a decision triangle around the $19,000 level, with bearish divergence on the RSI (Relative Strength Index)," he said.

"This usually indicates the price action is cooling off."

"That being said, the bears have not shown enough strength to get below $18,000, so we expect another visit to the $20,000 area this week," added Warner.

Kiana Danial, CEO of Invest Diva, also provided input, pointing to a potential retracement.

"Bitcoin appears to be in the process of forming a double top bearish reversal chart pattern," she stated.

"Due to its volatile nature, I wouldn't be surprised to see a pullback before we see long-term gains, especially as the bullish hype seems to be dying down."

"Based on Fibonacci retracement levels, the key support levels are at $17,600, $16,400, and $15,000," said Danial.

Bullish Market Factors

While the aforementioned experts provided technical analysis, other market observers offered some additional thoughts on what is driving bitcoin's price action.

Jeff Dorman, chief investment officer of asset manager Arca, spoke to the sentiment of investors, stating that:

"Everywhere you look, markets look extended, with very little fear."

"Both the equity and Bitcoin fear and greed indexes are flashing caution," he added.

"While the lack of fear itself should be causing more fear, the reality is, governments around the world" "are doing everything in their power to force investors into risky assets, and it's working."

Ray Youssef, CEO of Paxful, spoke to the digital asset's growing "momentum."

"Bitcoin is very close to going mainstream and it's becoming a feasible alternative to stocks, commodities, and bonds," he stated.

"We've seen an influx of attention to the digital asset from retail investors, institutional investors, and many major publicly traded companies solidifying trust in Bitcoin and more so its use cases," said Youssef.

"Momentum has proved to be a powerful propellant, which can be attributed to a number of factors including fluctuating economic situations globally, the pandemic, and an increased understanding of the functionalities of crypto."

"All of this and more will allow Bitcoin to become the new world currency."

Disclosure: I own some bitcoin, bitcoin cash, litecoin, ether and EOS.

Bitcoin, Litecoin And Monero Luminaries Invest In Historic Crypto-Securities Offering - Forbes

Posted: 08 Dec 2020 10:35 AM PST

On the evening of October 28, the creator of the $5.2 billion cryptocurrency litecoin, Charlie Lee, received stock in a little-known video game startup called Exordium, using technology built on the bitcoin blockchain. While a stock allocation isn't often the stuff of breaking news, I was there, eating a salad, like it was popcorn at the most gripping science fiction movie of the year.

A few months prior Lee had signed a contract, called a simple agreement for future tokens (SAFT) that guaranteed him 10,000 tokens representing a stake in the new game publisher. Modeled after traditional equities agreements, the contract is designed to ensure tokens issued on a blockchain, similar to bitcoin, comply with U.S. securities regulations.

But this was anything but a traditional investment. While SAFT contracts were originally adopted by entrepreneurs (and scammers) who raised $22 billion in token offerings on more versatile, but less valuable blockchains like ethereum, EOS, and tezos, this allocation is the first of its kind settleable in bitcoin, now valued at $356 billion, and paves the way for future offerings. Present at the historic virtual event was Lee, 43, who previously worked as a software engineer at Google, Samson Mow, 41, chief strategy officer of bitcoin software startup Blockstream, which has raised $101 million, and Sonny Alves Dias, 34, chief technology officer of the game's developer Pixelmatic, and acting CEO of Exordium.

After a brief introduction, and some obligatory comments from Mow to clarify that what I was about to see didn't constitute a stock offering, Alves Dias ran the first line of computer code he'd written the day before using Blockstream AMP, software for issuing tokens that comply with regulatory requirements by using a white list, ensuring that only certain people can trade them, or only at certain places.

Instead of the days it normally takes to create new securities from scratch and distribute them to investors, the assets, called EXO tokens, were ushered into existence in seconds. If the technology wasn't so impressive, the moment would have been anticlimactic. "That's it," said Alves Dias, about 2 seconds after hitting enter. "It's issued." Taking a bite of my salad, I looked around for fireworks. The cryptocurrency veterans smiled casually like this happens everyday.

After marking the tokens with a code that means only other investors with the same code can trade it, creating the first half of the white list, Alves Dias prepared to grant Lee the same credentials, the penultimate step in the transaction. "Aaaand...it's not working," Alves Dias, awkwardly laughed. "Sorry, I need to dig into the code." Mow cringed a bit. "We did a dry run last night," he said. "And it worked perfectly." I laughed, having seen enough tech demos to know this pretty much always happens. Lee sat robotic, barely reacting.

Mow vamped like a pro. Immediately going into the back-story about how Blockstream AMP had recently been rebranded from Liquid Securities to make it clear the technology had more than one application. For example, a project currently underway by the Bermuda government would issue stimulus tokens to bolster its citizens during economic downturns. But the tokens could only be spent at certain locations, for example to buy food, or pay a babysitter. "It's a very broad platform," said Mow, "that has broad, sweeping implications." That is, of course, if it works, I thought to myself.

Alves Dias interjected. He'd found the error, some old code. "The asset has been properly associated with a category," he said. "It's already visible online." By matching the code embedded in the asset to the code embedded in Lee's wallet, they ensured that only Lee, and other compliant regulators, could trade the assets. And by doing so, took a huge step towards ensuring that traders generally speaking were compliant, without needing a costly middleman to check every transaction. I took another bite of my salad, watching to see what would happen next. 

After a bit of back and forth to confirm Alves Dias would send the securities to Lee's wallet he wound up for what would be the final pitch if this was the World Series. "Now, I'm going to run the actual commit to distribute," he said as he typed. After comparing the code in the EXO tokens with the code in Lee's wallet, the software sent a message to the AMP platform's underlying technology, called the Liquid Network, a separate blockchain that sits on top of the bitcoin blockchain. "Okay, and then...there is another mistake." Alves Dias laughed nervously. "Let me double check."

Mow vamped again, explaining how the Green wallet Lee was using, purchased by Blockstream in 2016 for an undisclosed amount, can now hold any asset issued on Liquid, called a sidechain, and already included a version of the Japanese Yen, the Canadian dollar, and of course bitcoin itself. Alves Dias identified the errant code, enthusiastically interrupting. "We're just starting to commence," he said, pausing apprehensively. "Soooo, that's it. It's issued now." He looked into the camera at Mow, myself, and Lee. "So, maybe Charlie, you can have a look?" Lee replied, holding up his phone. "Okay, I see I received 10,000 EXO from exordium.co."

To capture the moment I asked if I could take a picture. In the image, Alves Dias sits literally surrounded by the code he's just executed, Lee casually holds up his phone to prove the transaction, and Mow oversees it all, smiling like a proud father. Thanks to a virtual green screen behind Lee, obscuring everything in Lee's room except himself, it took four tries before the image of the phone wasn't also obscured. "Its the green wallet," quipped Alves Dias. "So it gets erased by the green screen." What I'd witnessed wasn't flawless, but it was elegant in its simplicity. 

In total, a relatively small $3.1 million was invested by Lee, Blockstream CEO Adam Back, former Monero lead maintainer, Riccardo "FluffyPony" Spagni, an influential, pseudonymous investor known on Twitter as @WhalePanda and others. Approximately 20% of the firm's revenue is expected to be shared among the early investors, employees and other token holders, with a four-year vesting schedule. Exordium is currently raising another $12 million via additional token offerings in the U.S. and EU. But it isn't the size of the investment that's important here, it's the technology. 

"With a normal investment, you invest in a company and then you get the equity. And it's a piece of paper, or it's a digital certificate or something," says Lee. "But you don't actually hold the token in your hand, and you can't really transact with it. And you can only cash out when the company goes IPO or it gets bought-out. But with an STO investment, the upside is it can be quite liquid." Mow says that "STOs are going to open up the door for a lot of smaller investors that typically would not have access to these types of deals. Early round investments will typically go to insiders in legacy finance or equity firms or VCs with a big name. But if more people are adopting security token offerings, and these tokenized platforms where they can solicit investments from the market, then it democratizes the whole investment process."

In addition to being the CSO of Blockstream, in 2011 Mow founded Shanghai, China-based Pixelmatic, which developed the first video game Exordium will publish, called Infinite Fleet. Unlike more traditional video games like Super Mario Brothers, where coins can be used to buy extra lives, or purchase items that disappear when the game turns off, or World of Warcraft that lets you keep and trade virtual items like swords indefinitely, but only within the game itself, Pixelmatic builds video games where the coins and digital items will be able to be exported, traded on cryptocurrency exchanges, and used to purchase real goods. To give an idea for the possible demand, a 2019 report for the 8th International Congress on Advanced Applied Informatics estimated that $2.9 billion is spent annually on digital goods.

The current fundraising round will be used to develop Infinite Fleet, created by lead systems designer of Age of Empires, Jason Lee and technical art director on Age of Empires IV, Wayne Wong-Chong. The massively muilti-player online (MMO) game lets players earn a cryptocurrency called INF—also created using the Liquid Network—by blowing up spaceships and defeating armadas. Similar to bitcoin, these tokens will have a fixed supply, making it easier for them to accumulate value on the open market, assuming the development of a secondary market of people who want to spend the token or speculate on it. The game will soon enter closed alpha, meaning invited players can test out its limited functionality. Importantly, the INF token is different than the EXO tokens Lee, Back, and Spagni will receive in exchange for their investment.

The white list described above helps ensure that only qualified U.S. investors trade with other qualified U.S. investors. Exordium law firm Dorsey & Whitney due diligences the U.S. investors, while blockchain markets startup Stokr, based in Luxembourg, checks for EU compliance. The U.S. tokens are designed to comply with Reg D requirements implemented as part of the JOBS Act signed into law by former U.S. president Barack Obama in 2012 to let  smaller crowdfunding operations offer capital in exchange for investment. "These kinds of assets are dividend-paying at an earlier stage of their investment evolution, and potentially liquid at an earlier stage," says Back, whose work in the cryptocurrency field was cited by bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto in the white paper first describing the technology. "And, the regulatory filings there that they're using, [make them] potentially available to a wider range of people."

In addition to being the CEO of Pixelmatic, Mow is the chief strategy officer of Blockstream, the Victoria, Canada-based startup developing a wide range of technology that supports bitcoin, including a satellite network designed to enable bitcoin transactions without the internet. Another product, is the Liquid Network that powers Blockstream AMP by providing additional functionality, including the ability to write code that automatically executes when certain criteria are met (called smart contracts). Liquid also has its own cryptocurrency, called liquid bitcoin. As a result, any assets created on liquid can be settled in its free market value against either bitcoin or liquid bitcoin, and traded accordingly.

While AMP's white lists might seem to be a natural fit for letting compliant traders trade with each other without the need of a middleman, there's at least one other application: ensuring that people exchanging the asset for a good or service only do so at select vendors. In September the Bermuda Government launched a pilot using Blockstream AMP to issue stimulus tokens spendable by 20 test citizens at three previously approved merchants. Upon successful completion of the pilot next year, the Bermuda Economic Development Corporation will prepare a wider public rollout with select merchants. "Our vision is to see the Bermuda dollar digitized on every blockchain protocol," says Denis Pitcher, chief fintech advisor to Bermuda Premier David Burt. "A wallet on every phone and the ability for Bermuda to act as a showcase of what is possible when money and value becomes programmable and interoperable."

Though ethereum is still the blockchain of choice for most STOs, according to a report last year, the opportunity for such a platform on bitcoin, which comprises 62% of all cryptocurrency value, is enormous—and the competition is tightening. Bitcoin's arch nemesis Bitcoin Cash, has been quietly operating a similar service called Mint designed to enable public offerings for black market businesses, since at least April 2020, and a number of custom platforms for STOs, like Polymath and Securrency, are developing new tailor-made blockchains. 

One of the biggest obstacles to mainstream adoption of STOs is the dearth of reliable markets where compliant investors can go to meet. Currently, trades of security tokens are largely limited to word-of-mouth exchanges, according to Mow. As a result, while tokenized securities promise to democratize investing by opening up access to retail investors, most trades still occur between people within a tight-knit community. Mow hopes to break that trend by opening trading of the tokens to U.S.-based INX, domiciled in Gibraltar, itself in the process of raising cash using an STO on the ethereum blockchain.

In October INX announced it purchased Chicago-based OpenFinance, a registered broker-dealer that had already been granted status as an alternative trading system (ATS), meaning it can host securities trades. INX expects to announce that it will list the security token soon. Crypto-ATS competitors include Overstock's tZero, which in August started trading its third blockchain equity, and PPEX managed by brokerage firm North Capital, which revealed its first three blockchain equities last week.

There are, however, drawbacks to Liquid. Similar to bitcoin and ethereum, a group of computers distributed around the world, called a federation, helps ensure Liquid's record of transactions is accurate. But unlike those earlier, more decentralized blockchains Liquid is audited by only 15 companies, called functionaries, that run custom hardware, or "boxes," including Bitfinex, Unocoin, Crypto Garage, and others. For comparison bitcoin has 11,212 live nodes, making it nearly impossible for them to collude and change the blockchain. Sidechain competitor RSK can be downloaded by anyone, and is theoretically capable of being much more decentralized.

To help off-set concerns over centralization Blockstream plans to make it easier for functionaries to join next year. "We're adding this new function called 'dynafed' or dynamic federations, where we can add and remove functionaries at will," says Mow. "But essentially, those 15 are the ones that decide who will get a box. So they all need to be in agreement to add a new functionary."

Bitcoin Drops 2% as European Stocks See Losses on Brexit Concerns - CoinDesk - CoinDesk

Posted: 08 Dec 2020 03:39 AM PST

Bitcoin is facing selling pressure on Tuesday as traditional markets suffer the jitters over fears of a "no-deal" Brexit.

The top cryptocurrency by market value is changing hands near $18,800 at press time, representing a more than 2% decline on the day, according to CoinDesk 20 data. The decline comes after multiple rejections near $19,400 in the past 48 hours.

Bitcoin's rally has lost steam in the past few days, with large sell orders placed around the all-time high of $19,920 capping the upside. According to observers, people are looking to sell at current levels based on what happened during the 2017 bull market. Bitcoin peaked at $19,783 in December 2017 and fell as low as $6,000 by early February.

There is evidence of some investors liquidating their bitcoin holdings. The balance held in so-called accumulation addresses has declined by over 4% to 2,698,719 bitcoin in the past three weeks, according to data source Glassnode.

With the repeated rejections near all-time highs, the cryptocurrency is beginning to look heavy on technical charts, forcing some traders to reassess their bullish positioning.

"We are leaning bearish here and beginning to unwind some long exposure in bitcoin and DeFi selections," said Patrick Heusser, a senior cryptocurrency trader at Zurich-based Crypto Broker AG, referring to decentralized finance. "The reasoning is on some technicals and how the spot market is structured with large orders at around the lifetime high."

Bitcoin's 14-day relative strength index recently charted a bearish divergence, or lower high, possibly warning of an impending price pullback. The MACD histogram, an indicator used to gauge trend strength and shifts, is producing deeper bars below the zero line, also indicating a downside move may be imminent.

A potential sell-off in the stock markets could be a driver for a notable price pullback in bitcoin. The cryptocurrency has rallied to record highs, but has yet to decouple from the stock markets. The ascent from $10,000 to $19,920 seen over the past three months happened amid the bullish price action in the equity markets.

At press time, major European stock market indices such as Germany's DAX and U.K. FTSE are down at least 0.3%. The futures tied to the S&P 500 are also down nearly 0.3%.

Investors are selling equities and buying safe havens like the U.S. dollar on the uncertain prospects of a trade deal between the European Union and the outgoing U.K. According to experts, the long-term impact of a Brexit with no trade deal in place could be costly for Britain and the remaining EU member states.

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