What Caused Bitcoin Price to Surge Past $10K Over the Weekend? - Cointelegraph

What Caused Bitcoin Price to Surge Past $10K Over the Weekend? - Cointelegraph


What Caused Bitcoin Price to Surge Past $10K Over the Weekend? - Cointelegraph

Posted: 09 Feb 2020 03:17 PM PST

Since Dec. 18, 2019, in less than three months, Bitcoin's (BTC) price surged by 68% against the United States dollar. It surpassed the $10,000 level on Feb. 9, marking the start of a full-blown crypto market rally for most.

The sentiment around the recent Bitcoin rally remains divided amongst investors. Joe007, for instance, one of the biggest whales in the cryptocurrency market, has been adamant that the upsurge has been a result of pure manipulation.

Other investors like Adaptive Capital general partner Willy Woo and Three Arrows Capital CEO Su Zhu said that both fundamental and technical factors have supported the rally since the beginning. When Bitcoin's price was hovering at around $7,000, Zhu noted that the premium of the BTC/USDT pair indicated an accumulation phase was starting particularly in Asia.

While the explanations for the recent Bitcoin upsurge vary, they ultimately can be narrowed down to three broad factors: accumulation since December 2019, on-chain data indicating a rise in investor activity and a possible manipulation by whales.

Factor #1: accumulation of Bitcoin since December 2019

On Dec. 28, 2019, Zhu stated that the BTC/USDT premium suggest investors were accumulating, and Bitcoin's price could hit $9,000 by the end of January:

"BTC/USDT premiums and price action show clear signs of accumulation and money flow back into risk. Would not surprise me to see 9K+ before the end of Jan."

At the time, Bitcoin's price was hovering at $7,200, and at the end of January, as predicted by Zhu, its price peaked at $9,500. When the BTC/USDT pair was showing a premium over spot, it meant that the demand for Tether and Bitcoin was on the rise.

According to cryptocurrency research firm Diar, the majority of the on-chain activity of Tether in mid-2019 occurred in China. The volume of Tether coming from Chinese exchanges was substantially higher than exchanges in the West. The report read:

"On-chain data shows Tether movements hitting a new all-time-high for 2Q19 with one month left on the calendar for the period. What is most striking, however, is the volume coming in and out of Chinese exchanges dwarfs western and global trading venues and accounts for more than half of the total transaction value of known parties."

Based on the premium of the BTC/USDT pair and China accounting for the overwhelming majority of Tether's on-chain activity, it can be reasonably deduced that many investors in Asia were accumulating in the final months of 2019.

The gradual accumulation heading into 2020 was expected to be dominated by the narrative around the scheduled Bitcoin reward halving set to occur in May, established a strong foundation for an extended rally.

Factor #2: whale manipulation

Since Bitcoin's price was in the mid-$9,000 range, Joe007 has consistently said that the rally is manipulated by fake buy walls and spoof orders. After Bitcoin's price hit $10,000, the Bitcoin whale wrote:

"I'm all in for a good old BTC parabolic, but I'd like to cash out in the end. But it's not possible if the price is pumped up by overleveraged players in the face of low liquidity and weak fiat inflow."

The main argument behind Joe007's statement is that the recent upsurge was triggered by other whales placing spoof orders across margin trading platforms to inorganically pump the price of Bitcoin up.

In margin trading, a spoof order is a fake buy order of a large size created to lead others into buying into the market with the intent of pushing the price up. When the price goes up, the order disappears, hence the term "spoof."

While the Bitcoin rally started out as manipulation from whales, considering the consistency in the emergence of spoof orders every time the dominant cryptocurrency showed a sign of a pullback, it remains unclear whether the movement to $10,000 and above is also being manipulated.

Simply put, what began as manipulation can turn organic if retail investors start to get involved and invest into the market out of fear of missing out. Throughout the entire run from the low $8,000s to $10,000, short sellers continue to place pressure on the market with large sell orders in the $9,000-to-$10,000 range.

As Bitcoin's price increased, it squeezed short contracts and pushed short sellers to market buy, which then turned into buying demand that further led BTC to spike. Speaking about Bitcoin reclaiming the psychological $10,000 level, a cryptocurrency analyst known as Light said:

"Markets seek liquidity. There are hundreds of millions in stops, liquidations and trigger orders hiding right above it. The prize is too great not to be taken. There is no real material sum of spot sellers who waited this long just to sell just before this leg's climax."

The lack of fiat inflow has been described as the missing piece of the upside movement of Bitcoin from the $6,000s to $10,000. But, in the past several days, exchanges like Binance have started to see some inflow that may provide BTC the basis it needs to initiate an extended upsurge.

Factor #3: rising on-chain investor activity

Willy Woo, who has created various indicators that take both fundamental and technical factors of Bitcoin into consideration to predict its trends, said that the chance of $10,000 being the top is basically zero. To explain the point, Woo showed a chart with the price of Bitcoin alongside on-chain investor activity.

Caption: Bitcoin on-chain investor activity. Source: Willy Woo Twitter

Caption: Bitcoin on-chain investor activity. Source: Willy Woo Twitter

The Realised Value to Transaction Volume ratio, for instance, is used as a signal to find market bottoms and tops. When Bitcoin's price reached $14,000 last year, the RVT ratio hit nearly 0.04. As of Feb. 10, the RVT ratio is hovering at around 0.018, which shows Bitcoin's price is unlikely to have topped. The ratio peaked at 0.12 when Bitcoin's price hit $20,000 in December 2017.

Could it be a mixture of all 3 factors?

The Bitcoin's rally from $6,400 to $10,000 is likely to have begun as manipulation from whales, based on the frequency and the consistency of spoof orders. However, it might have picked up retail interest, especially as investors in Asia began to accumulate Bitcoin in anticipation of the block reward halving that will occur in about three months.

Although Bitcoin's price is currently hovering at around $10,100, technical indicators do not show overbought conditions nor signs of a local top, which could allow BTC to move up further before it pulls back.

Bitcoin price tumbles to $9,700 as $57 million BTC longs liquidated on BitMEX - FXStreet

Posted: 09 Feb 2020 10:26 PM PST

  • Bitcoin dives under $10,000 and tests support at $9,700.
  • Bitcoin longs liquidations on BitMEX exchange hit $56 million.

Bitcoin price is nursing wounds of up to 2.41% on the day following the drop under $10,000. The price dived to $9,744 (intraday low) before adjusting to $9,912 (market value).

Bitcoin has had a yielding weekend session where it climbed above $10,000. The price extended the action closer to $10,200. However, the bulls could not continue with the upside.

The struggle to stay above $10,000 has been apparent in both the Asian and European hours. On other the hand, pullbacks could be necessary to create demand in the coming sessions.

Another scenario is that investors are quick to take profits as the rise to $11,000 and $12,000 remains in doubt. Besides, there has been a colossal $56 million Bitcoin longs liquidation on BitMEX.

Bitcoin Price Hits $10,000 for the First Time in 2020 — Up 40% YTD - Cointelegraph

Posted: 08 Feb 2020 07:03 PM PST

Bitcoin (BTC) briefly hit $10,000 on Feb. 9, capping a momentous first month of 2020 to reach its highest level since October last year.

BTC seals $10K after three months

Crypto market weekly price chart. Source: Coin360

Crypto market weekly price chart. Source: Coin360

Data from Coinbase exchange and Cointelegraph Markets showed that shortly after 3:00 a.m. UTC BTC/USD moved to $10,000 on a high volume spike but the digital asset quickly pulled back to $9,975. The feat of reclaiming five figures occurred after a nearly four-month absence.

During that time, the pair traded as low as $6,400 before an abrupt bullish turnaround saw January alone deliver gains of 35%.

The move to the symbolic $10,000 level was preceded by Bitcoin futures markets, which briefly entered the zone on Feb. 6.

Traders had been primed to expect a strong directional move, with Cointelegraph Markets analyst filbfilb identifying $9,550 as likely support.

Fellow analyst Mati Greenspan added:

"This isn't the first time bitcoin has been valued above $10,000 and it might not be the last, but it is the first time that the valuation is justifiable based on fundamentals of the network."

Bitcoin weekly price chart. Source: Coin360

Bitcoin weekly price chart. Source: Coin360

Altcoins mixed after previous gains

Currently, the overall cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $283.9 billion, with Bitcoin's dominance rate is 63.5%. A handful of major altcoins mirrored Bitcoin's success, with Ether (ETH) rising 2.27% to pass $225, EOS rallying 8.27% and Bitcoin SV (BSV) reaching $365.14 on the back of a 24.24% daily gain.

Earlier in the week, many tokens repeatedly put in a solid performance for investors, with daily gains for some topping 25%.

Keep track of top crypto markets in real time here

Bitcoin Price Will Remain Above $10k If These 3 Things Happen - Bitcoinist

Posted: 09 Feb 2020 11:36 AM PST

There is no shortage of excitement among crypto investors now that Bitcoin's price has moved above USD $10k for the first time in 5 months. Several moves are needed for this recovery to be long-lasting.


Institutional Investment Must Accelerate

Bitcoin has long had an institutional interest. There are now many investment funds from the legacy financial space moving into the market. Nevertheless, very few have taken major steps. This reticence can be explained by the tremendous volatility of the market along with the lack of government regulation and legal recognition of blockchain assets.

During the last bull run, as Bitcoin price reached its all-time-high, institutional investors remained on the sidelines. Now, as all signs point to a clear recovery, these players must not follow the same path.

Platform Development Must Continue

Whereas Bitcoin's hegemony in the crypto space remains solid, the platform has clear technical shortcomings. Scalability is a challenge, as on-chain transaction capacity cannot handle the demands of mass adoption. Thus, the Lightning Network must prove effective as network activity increases.

Simply put, for BTC to remain the top cryptocurrency, it cannot experience a repeat of the slow confirmation times and high fees that defined the last bull run.

Also, Bitcoin has long been criticized for its tremendous electricity use, which now exceeds that of many small countries. Solutions to this problem, which include using renewables and using off-time "waste" electricity from traditional power plants, should begin to take shape.

Bitcoin Fiat On-Ramps Must Improve

This issue is perhaps the greatest obstacle to mass adoption. Public interest in Bitcoin is high, yet most potential adopters cannot navigate the byzantine process of purchasing it. This bottleneck must be opened, with the ability to move fiat into the crypto market becoming smooth and user-friendly.

Fortunately, cryptocurrency ATMs are proliferating, and exchange apps are increasing purchase options. There is no doubt that buying Bitcoin is substantially easier than five years ago.

It is also worth noting, however, that exchanges are becoming increasingly burdened by government regulations that interfere with their ability to serve large segments of the population. For example, Poloniex has cut off the entire American market, and Binance was forced to create a new exchange solely for the U.S. citizens. Thus, government cooperation is essential if customers are to have reasonable access to blockchain assets.

Regardless of where Bitcoin's price moves in the short-term, market sentiment is presently optimistic, and the blockchain revolution is very real. Thus, there is little doubt that any challenges to mass adoption will eventually be resolved.

Do you think bitcoin price will remain above $10k? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below! 


Image via Shutterstock

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