Bitcoin Price Drops 5% After Rejecting at Key $9,900 Resistance - Cointelegraph

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• Bitcoin Price Drops 5% After Rejecting at Key $9,900 Resistance - Cointelegraph
• Bitcoin Price Past $10K? It Only Needs 0.7% of US Stimulus Check Money - Cointelegraph
• Crypto Traders Explain Where Bitcoin Price Can Go After Fifth $10K Test in 11 Days - Cointelegraph
• Major $800 Million Bitcoin And Crypto Investor Reveals Coming ‘Fourth Cycle’ - Forbes

Bitcoin Price Drops 5% After Rejecting at Key $9,900 Resistance - Cointelegraph Posted: 20 May 2020 11:53 AM PDT Within the last hour Bitcoin (BTC) price abruptly dropped 4.9% from $9,800 to $9,324. The sharp correction came after the top ranked digital asset on CoinMarketCap failed to push through the $9,900-$10,000 resistance zone.  At the time of writing traders appear to be viewing the pullback as a dip buying opportunity, possibly due to the boost in bullish sentiment brought about by yesterday's golden cross between the 50 and 200-day moving averages.  Crypto market weekly price chart. Source: Coin360 Interestingly, prior to the 5% correction, crypto-Twitter was abuzz with discussion over the transaction of 50 Bitcoin that hadn't moved wallet addresses since 2009. Some traders speculated that the coins were possibly from Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto.  Bitcoin: Spent Outputs with a Lifespan > 10 years. Source: glassnode Blockchain analytics provider, Glassnode posted the above chart and said:  A #Bitcoin UTXO older than 11 years was just spent on-chain! It dates from February 9th 2009 – only one month after the creation of Bitcoin. View of Bitcoin not spent since 2009. Source: Twitter, Antoine Le Calvez According to crypto trader Antoine Le Calvez, today's spend was "the first time since August 2017 that someone spent coins from early 2009." BTC USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView As shown on the daily chart, Bitcoin's drop from the rising wedge pattern brought the price to a well tested support at $9,400. The price also remains above the 20-day moving average but it's possible that the rising wedge trendline will now function as a level of resistance.  The trendline is also aligned with a high volume node on the VPVR from $9,627 to $9,767. Investors thinking about buying the dip could wait for a 4-hour candle close to see if the price begins to form higher lows.  Bitcoin daily price chart. Source: Coin360 Many of the top-10 altcoins also corrected sharply as Bitcoin price dropped. Ether (ETH) lost 4.95% and Chainlink (LINK) dropped by 5.79% but has recovered 3.35% to trade at $4.03. Tezos (XTZ) also shed 6.28% but at the time of writing trades for $2.80 after bouncing 3.16%.  According to CoinMarketCap,the overall cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $261.9 billion and Bitcoin's dominance rate is 66.8%. Keep track of top crypto markets in real time here

Bitcoin Price Past $10K? It Only Needs 0.7% of US Stimulus Check Money - Cointelegraph Posted: 20 May 2020 03:24 AM PDT Just 1% of the two stimulus checks being sent to Americans in 2020 would be enough to raise the Bitcoin (BTC) price. That was according to calculations circulating on Twitter this week, which suggest that the supply of new Bitcoins in 2020 could be bought up by less than 1% of the U.S. stimulus money. More helicopter cash for BTC? Noted by Matthew Kaye, managing partner at hedge fund Blockhead Capital on May 20, the numbers work by assuming an average BTC/USD price of $10,000 this year. Miners will unlock 328,500 BTC, which at $10,000 gives a total of $3.285 billion. The total value of the two rounds of stimulus checks is $478 billion, based on the latest comments on the handouts by Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin.  Thus, to keep the Bitcoin price where it is, just 0.68% of the stimulus money would be required to buy up the new supply. The equation is aided by Bitcoin's halving earlier this month, which cut the number of new coins released per block by 50% and inflation to 1.8%.  Kaye admitted that he "doesn't expect" Americans to actually buy Bitcoin in such amounts with their checks. As Cointelegraph reported, however, exchanges did notice an uptick in buys for the full $1,200 of the first check when it hit. Kaye summarized in additional comments: I don't expect 1% of recipients to buy bitcoin - I'm merely illustrating a point that increased M2 entering the real economy will increase asset prices. US M2 money supply surges 18% in months That increased M2 supply has formed a focus for other commentators this week, among them Cointelegraph Markets analyst filbfilb.  Releasing charts to subscribers of his Telegram trading channel on Tuesday, he noted that M2 was now up 18% from October 19 last year.  The recovery in the S&P 500, he added, looked remarkably rosier when M2 is used as a denominator.  U.S. M2 money supply 1-year chart. Source: St. Louis Fed At the same time, Bitcoin miners were shown to be selling less overall, with mining pool outflows diminishing. Analyst PlanB, the creator of the S2FX BTC price forecasting tool, described the behavior as "stock-to-flow in action."

Crypto Traders Explain Where Bitcoin Price Can Go After Fifth $10K Test in 11 Days - Cointelegraph Posted: 19 May 2020 11:54 AM PDT The price of Bitcoin (BTC) tested $10,000 a total of five times in the past 11 days. The price action can be considered as a bullish or a bearish trend based on varying perspectives. The quintuple test of a key psychological level at $10,000 can be analyzed in two ways: The $10,000 resistance level is getting weakened with every test, or the resistance is so strong that buyers are not able to break out of it. Many top crypto traders believe that the mid-$9,000 area is a starting point to a new extended rally to the $14,000-to-$15,000 resistance range and with $20,000 as a medium-term target. Others foresee a sizable pullback to the $7,000-to-$8,000 region first, before Bitcoin's price can aim for $14,000 and then attempt to break the record high. The short-term, bullish scenario for Bitcoin  Traders who expect the price of Bitcoin to reclaim the $10,000 resistance level as support and see a rally to key levels above it predict that the resistance area was weakened with multiple spikes to the $9,800-to-$9,900 range. Bitcoin tests the $9,900–$10,000 resistance range five times in 11 days. Source: Tradingview Traders continue to debate whether the current price trend of Bitcoin the start of a bullish uptrend following the highly anticipated block reward halving on May 11. Fundamentally, the block reward halving is a highly optimistic event for Bitcoin's price because it directly affects the supply of BTC, as it halves the amount of Bitcoin mined, decreasing the rate, at which new BTC is produced and, subsequently, how much is sold on the market. Historically, the halvings of 2012 and 2016 both resulted in at least a 2,500% increase in price. Hence, the bullish trajectory of BTC is that the halving will push the price of Bitcoin forward in both the short-term and the long-term. Related: Cointelegraph Research: Demand for Bitcoin Grows After Halving According to cryptocurrency researcher Philip Swift, an indicator called the 2-Year Moving Average Multiplier shows BTC reached its bottom at $3,600 and broke out of a multi-year trendline at $5,800. At a macro level and in a more long-term scenario, Swift noted that the indicator suggests the next reasonable target for BTC is the all-time high of $20,000. Swift tweeted: "$BTC has been super bullish since it broke out above the 2yr MA. We got our chance to accumulate below it b4 the hedge fund guys got all excited about Bitcoin. Next stop now the 2yrMA x5 [over $20,000]." Bitcoin price with 2-Year MA multiplier. Source: Philip Swift Similarly, Bitcoin trader Nunya Bizniz said Bitcoin is showing a "golden cross" at a high time frame, which has only happened seven times in Bitcoin's history. The last golden cross was triggered when BTC was hovering at around $5,000 in early 2019 when it recovered from a plunge to $3,150. Bizniz tweeted: "BTC Golden Cross (GC): GC = 50dma moves above 200dma. There have been 6 occurrences. Of those, only one has occurred while the 200MA is rising. A 7th GC is about to occur with a slight rising gradient in the 200MA." A golden cross typically indicates the start of an extended bull trend. However, the risk is that BTC's price could potentially drop below this cross point when it happens, which then makes it a death cross with a bearish structure. The seventh golden cross in the history of Bitcoin forms. Source: Nunya Bizniz For most of the macro bullish trends of Bitcoin to remain intact, BTC has to remain above $9,000 over the next week and continue to retest the $10,000 resistance level. The positive sentiment among professional traders also coincides with the moving average convergence divergence, or MACD, indicating an additional upside on a weekly Bitcoin price chart. Bitcoin weekly price chart with MACD. Source: Satoshi Flipper With Bitcoin remaining above $9,000, cryptocurrency investor known as "Light" emphasized that the sentiment around Bitcoin among top traders is generally positive, tweeting: "I am yet to run into a single competent trader/investor who is bearish on Bitcoin in this current moment. And those who are long are bullish with conviction. In hindsight it'll either look incredibly obvious, or it'll turn out that we've all run grossly ahead of ourselves." However, when the majority of the market is bullish, it often leaves BTC vulnerable to a correction before another uptrend. That is the risk of a deep pullback other highly regarded traders see in the near-term. The bearish Scenario for Bitcoin over the next few weeks If the optimistic predictions on Bitcoin revolve around the positive effect on the price of BTC a halving can have, negative projections also primarily revolve around the halving. In the previous two halvings, Bitcoin's price dropped after the halving, and the real uptrend did not initiate until 8–12 weeks after the halving. The tendency of Bitcoin to fall after a halving combined with the failure to break out of the $10,000 resistance level following five unsuccessful attempts has fuelled most bearish predictions for BTC. Bitcoin trader known as TraderXO said in a tweet that BTC's price is likely to drop to the low-$9,000s in the near-term, with the mid-$8,000 region as a lower area of support. Bitcoin price range based on its price action since early May. Source: TraderXO Based on market data, approximately 72% of the Bitcoin futures market is taking a long position. That means the overwhelming majority of traders are expecting Bitcoin's price to go up. While this is typically a positive piece of data, it also opens up the possibility of a long squeeze.  Across BitMEX, Bitfinex and Binance Futures, there is about $716 million worth of active longs. In contrast, only $273 million worth of shorts is filed. The large discrepancy between longs and shorts decreases the probability of a short squeeze and increases the likelihood of a deep pullback. Variables outside of price action The fundamentals of Bitcoin such as on-chain activity, liquidity and sentiment slightly declined after the halving. Liesl Eichholz, the head of growth strategy at Glassnode, wrote: "Bitcoin on-chain fundamentals dropped slightly in Week 20. GNI registered a 1 point decrease over the week, pushing its overall assessment of the Bitcoin ecosystem to 73 points. This downturn was mainly driven by the Network Health subindex, which decreased by 8 points." The minor decrease in overall liquidity and sentiment was mainly caused by a decline in interest toward Bitcoin pre- and post-halving. Before the event, the number of transactions on the Bitcoin blockchain network and activity across various platforms increased. Considering the pre-halving hype, Eichholz emphasized that the slight drop in fundamentals is not necessarily a negative indicator. A positive factor, however, is an increase in the number of addresses holding more than 0.1 BTC, or around $970. Related: Bitcoin Halving Was Not the Apocalyptic Event Some in Crypto Feared Bitcoin has the image of a currency that is widely owned by whales — i.e., individual investors who hold a large portion of the asset's supply. However, data shows that the distribution of the supply of BTC has improved, with more people owning BTC. Rafael Schultze-Kraft, a researcher at Glassnode, tweeted: "There are now more than 3 million #Bitcoin addresses holding at least 0.1 $BTC (current value: $975 USD). That's 14% more addresses than one year ago today." External factors such as on-chain data and fundamentals show that there are no major events that could have a significant impact on BTC's price in the short-term. That leaves the current price action of BTC along with macro trend projections as the two factors that are likely to sway BTC's price in the coming weeks. For bears or sellers, Bitcoin's price dropping below $9,000 to avoid a golden cross at the mid-$9,000 region and an optimistic breakout on the weekly chart would indicate the resumption of a bearish trend.  For bulls or buyers, Bitcoin's price remaining above the $9,500-to-$9,600 range would indicate that despite strong overhead resistance, there is enough demand across spot, futures, options and institutional markets to sustain the uptrend of BTC.

Major $800 Million Bitcoin And Crypto Investor Reveals Coming ‘Fourth Cycle’ - Forbes Posted: 19 May 2020 01:12 AM PDT Bitcoin and cryptocurrency investors have been eagerly waiting for bitcoin's next breakout—if it ever comes. The bitcoin price, on track to be one of the year's best performing assets, remains far from its all-time high of around $20,000 set in late 2017. Now, Silicon Valley venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz has forecast a "fourth crypto cycle" could be on the horizon—potentially sending the bitcoin price sharply higher. MORE FROM FORBESThe U.S. Just Destroyed A Potential Dollar Rival-Is Bitcoin Next?By Billy Bambrough The bitcoin price has been through three cycles so far, with the next bitcoin and crypto ... [+] price-innovation cycle expected soon. AFP via Getty Images "The 2017 cycle spawned dozens of exciting projects in a wide range of areas including payments, finance, games, infrastructure, and web apps," Andreessen Horowitz partners Chris Dixon and Eddy Lazzarin wrote in a blog post. "Many of these projects are launching in the near future, possibly driving a fourth crypto cycle." Last month, Andreessen Horowitz announced its second $515 million bitcoin and crypto fund, adding to the $300 million fund it launched in mid-2018. The 2020 fund raising smashed the original $450 million target and will be dedicated to cryptocurrency and blockchain projects—specifically decentralized finance, next-generation payments and the decentralized internet. "Even though crypto cycles look chaotic, over the long term they've generated steady growth of new ideas, code, projects, and startups—the fundamental drivers of software innovation," Dixon and Lazzarin wrote, adding "people who've been in crypto for a long time view the space as evolving in cycles, alternating between periods of high activity and 'crypto winters.'" MORE FROM FORBESHas The Coronavirus Pandemic Sealed The Dollar's Fate?By Billy Bambrough The bitcoin price climbed to around $20,000 at the peak of what Andreessen Horowitz called the ... [+] "third crypto cycle" and has since bounced around the $10,000 per bitcoin mark. Coinbase The VC firm identifies an "underlying order" to the first three 2011, 2013 and 2017 bitcoin and crypto cycles. First, the price of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies rises, leading to new interest and social media activity. New users get involved, contributing new ideas and code and creating projects and startups. These product launches inspire more people, "eventually culminating in the next cycle." The bitcoin and crypto price-innovation cycle model is based on anecdotal evidence and data, according to Dixon and Lazzarin. "Anecdotally, of the hundreds of conversations with crypto founders we've had, we often hear stories like: 'I heard about crypto in [2011, 2013, 2017] when the prices spiked and everyone was talking about it. At first, I thought it was just about money, but then I started reading white papers and blog posts, learned more about the potential of the technology, and eventually fell in love with it.'" The firm has also "analyzed 10 years of data, including Reddit comments in crypto subreddits, Github commits in crypto repos, and Pitchbook funding data." MORE FROM FORBESThis Minor Cryptocurrency Is On Track To Smash Bitcoin In 2020By Billy Bambrough Andreessen Horowitz found that the data shows "choppy yet consistent growth in all of the key ... [+] metrics"--pointing to a coming fourth bitcoin and crypto price-innovation cycle. Andreessen Horowitz Meanwhile, the bitcoin and cryptocurrency community is still readjusting following a planned supply squeeze that saw the number of new bitcoin being created cut by half. Earlier this month, the number of bitcoin rewarded to those that maintain the bitcoin network, called miners, was cut by half—dropping from 12.5 bitcoin to 6.25. Many had warned the bitcoin price could crash in the aftermath of the third halving but most analysts seem confident the bitcoin price will climb eventually.

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